Tag Archives: US-Cuba Normalization

NOW THAT WASHINGTON HAS BEGUN TO DISMANTLE ITS TRADE EMBARGO, HAVANA MUST END ITS INTERNAL EMBARGO AGAINST ISLAND ENTREPRENEURS

Ted A. Henken, Associate Professor of Sociology and Latin American Studies at Baruch College, New York City, and, Archibald R.M. Ritter, Economics and international Affairs,  Carleton University,  Ottawa

Huffington Post, January 20, 2015

Original Article here: INTERNAL EMBARGO

In scores of interviews conducted over the past 15 years with Cuban entrepreneurs, we often heard the following saying: “El que tenga tienda que la atienda, o si no que la venda” (Whoever has a store should tend to it, and if not then sell it). This pungent adage demands that the government turn over to Cuba’s burgeoning private sector those economic activities it cannot operate effectively itself — many of which are already widely practiced in Cuba’s ubiquitous underground economy.

In other words, the U.S. embargo — recently dealt a near-fatal blow by the joint decision by Presidents Barack Obama and Raúl Castro to reestablish diplomatic relations after almost 54 years — is hardly the principal “blockade” standing in the way of Cuba’s economic revitalization. Though the American “bloqueo” has long been the target of withering and well-deserved international condemnation, on the island Cubans themselves are much more likely to criticize what they bitterly refer to as the “auto-bloqueo” (internal embargo) imposed by the Cuban government itself on the entrepreneurial ingenuity and basic civil and political rights of the Cuban people.

While it is good and necessary for the United States to open up to Cuba and vice versa (to paraphrase the late Pope John Paul II), little economic progress or political freedom will be enjoyed by Cubans themselves until the Cuban government opens up to its own people, ceases to demand their acquiescence as subjects, and begins to respect them as citizens, consumers and entrepreneurs with defensible and inalienable economic and political rights of their own.

In fact, two weeks following the historic mid-December Obama-Castro announcement, the Cuban government received its first public test of whether its internal embargo would now be relaxed in light of the sea-change in U.S. policy. On December 30, 2014, the internationally renowned Cuban artist Tania Bruguera organized a public act of performance art in Havana’s iconic Revolutionary Plaza. Dubbed “#YoTambienExijo,” Bruguera invited Cuban citizens to “share their own demands” on the government for one minute each at an open-mic set up in the Plaza.

Predictably, the government responded by arresting and detaining scores of artists, activists and independent journalists, which amounted to an even more public “performance” of its own typically repressive tactics, as news of the event echoed in the international media on the final day of the year. Thus, while we can celebrate the fact that the U.S. and Cuban governments have finally agreed to begin respectful, diplomatic engagement, the Cuban government’s failure to respectfully engage with the diverse and often dissenting voices of its own citizens makes us wonder with Bruguera whether “it’s the Cuban people who will benefit from this new historic moment,” as she put it in her open letter to Raúl Castro.

Before 2006, President Fidel Castro pursued an economic policy retrenchment that gradually phased out the pro-market reforms of the early-1990s, indicating that he was more aware of the political risks that popular entrepreneurship would pose to his centralized political control than of the economic benefits it could provide. Therefore, he was unwilling to transfer more than a token portion of the state “tienda” to private entrepreneurs. However, his brother Raúl Castro, whose presidency began in 2006, has begun to heed the popular wisdom cited above and deliberatively shrink the state “store,” transferring the production of many goods and services to small private and cooperative enterprises. In fact, the number of Cuba’s licensed self-employed has grown from less than 150,000 in 2010 to half-a-million today.

Still, much more needs to be done so that Cuban entrepreneurs can contribute fully to economic growth. For example, 70 percent of the newly self-employed were previously unemployed, meaning that they simply likely converted their clandestine enterprises into legal ones doing little to absorb the 1.8 million workers slated for layoff from the state sector. Moreover, only seven percent of self-employed are college graduates and most them work in low-tech activities because almost all professional self-employment is prohibited. This acts as an effective “blockade” on the productive use of Cuba’s well-educated labor force.

Effectively “ending the embargo” against Cuban entrepreneurs and facilitating the emergence of cooperative and small-enterprise sectors will require deeper, more audacious reforms. Among these changes is

  • opening the professions to private enterprise;
  • implementing affordable wholesale and credit markets;
  • ending the fiercely guarded state monopoly on imports, exports and investment;
  •  permitting the establishment of retailing enterprises; and
  • relaxing the tax burden on small enterprise, which currently discriminates against domestic enterprises in favor of foreign firms.

 Progress in all these areas would be greatly facilitated by access to U.S. investors and markets, which will soon become possible as Obama’s historic policy changes are implemented during 2015.

However, does Raúl have the political will to double-down on his reforms? The prohibition of activities the government prefers to monopolize allows it to exercise control over Cuban citizens and impose an apparent order over society. However, this comes at the cost of pushing all targeted economic activity (along with potential tax revenue) back into the black market — where much of it lived prior to 2010. On the other hand, the legalization and regulation of the many private activities dreamed up and market-tested by Cuba’s inventive entrepreneurial sector would create more jobs, a higher quality and variety of goods and services at lower prices, while increasing tax revenue. However, these benefits would come at the cost of allowing greater autonomy, the concentration of wealth and property in private hands, and open competition against long-protected state monopolies.

This post is part of a Huffington Post blog series called “90 Miles: Rethinking the Future of U.S.-Cuba Relations.” The series puts the spotlight on the emerging relations between two long-standing Western Hemisphere foes and will feature pre-eminent thought leaders from the public and private sectors, academia, the NGO community, and prominent observers from both countries. Read all the other posts in the series here.

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Photographer with museum quality camera at the front of the Capitolio

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Restaurant Metropolis, 19 y “L”, Vedado,  with its menu on display  (below)

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Bicytaxis

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Vegetable and Fruit Vendor, Central Havana

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FACT SHEET: TREASURY AND COMMERCE ANNOUNCEMENT OF REGULATORY AMENDMENTS TO THE CUBA SANCTIONS

U.S. Treasury Department, Office of Public Affairs

EMBARGOED FOR 9:00 AM EST:  January 15, 2015

CONTACT:  Hagar Chemali, Treasury Public Affairs (202) 622-2960                  

FACT SHEET: TREASURY AND COMMERCE ANNOUNCEMENT OF REGULATORY AMENDMENTS TO THE CUBA SANCTIONS

 Amendments Implement Changes Announced by the President on December 17 Related to the Easing of Cuba Sanctions

WASHINGTON – On December 17, 2014 the President announced a set of diplomatic and economic changes to chart a new course in U.S. relations with Cuba and to further engage and empower the Cuban people.  The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the U.S. Department of Commerce today are announcing the forthcoming publication of the revised Cuban Assets Control Regulations (CACR) and Export Administration Regulations (EAR), which implement the changes announced on December 17 to the sanctions administered by Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS).  The changes take effect tomorrow, when the regulations are published in the Federal Register.

 These measures will facilitate travel to Cuba for authorized purposes, facilitate the provision by travel agents and airlines of authorized travel services and the forwarding by certain entities of authorized remittances, raise the limits on and generally authorize certain categories of remittances to Cuba, allow U.S. financial institutions to open correspondent accounts at Cuban financial institutions to facilitate the processing of authorized transactions, authorize certain transactions with Cuban nationals located outside of Cuba, and allow a number of other activities related to, among other areas, telecommunications, financial services, trade, and shipping.  Persons must comply with all provisions of the revised regulations; violations of the terms and conditions could result in penalties under U.S. law.

To see the Treasury regulations, which can be found at 31 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), part 515, please see here.  To see the Commerce regulations, which can be found at 15 CFR parts 730-774, please see here.  The regulations will be effective as of Friday, January 16. Major elements of the changes in the revised regulations include:

Travel –

  • In all 12 existing categories of authorized travel, travel previously authorized by specific license will be authorized by general license, subject to appropriate conditions.  This means that individuals who meet the conditions laid out in the regulations will not need to apply for a license to travel to Cuba.
  • These categories are: family visits; official business of the U.S. government, foreign governments, and certain intergovernmental organizations; journalistic activity; professional research and professional meetings; educational activities; religious activities; public performances, clinics, workshops, athletic and other competitions, and exhibitions; support for the Cuban people; humanitarian projects; activities of private foundations or research or educational institutes; exportation, importation, or transmission of information or information materials; and certain authorized export transactions.
  • The per diem rate previously imposed on authorized travelers will no longer apply, and there is no specific dollar limit on authorized expenses.  Authorized travelers will be allowed to engage in transactions ordinarily incident to travel within Cuba, including payment of living expenses and the acquisition in Cuba of goods for personal consumption there.
  • Additionally, travelers will now be allowed to use U.S. credit and debit cards in Cuba.

 Travel and Carrier Services

  • Travel agents and airlines will be authorized to provide authorized travel and air carrier services without the need for a specific license from OFAC.

Insurance –

  • U.S. insurerswill be authorized to provide coverage for global health, life, or travel insurance policies for individuals ordinarily resident in a third country who travel to or within Cuba.  Health, life, and travel insurance-related services will continue to be permitted for authorized U.S. travelers to Cuba.

 Importation of Goods

  • Authorized U.S. travelers to Cuba will be allowed to import up to $400 worth of  goods acquired in Cuba for personal use.  This includes no more than $100 of alcohol or tobacco products.

Telecommunications –

  • In order to better provide efficient and adequate telecommunications services between the United States and Cuba, a new OFAC general license will facilitate the establishment of commercial telecommunications facilities linking third countries and Cuba and in Cuba.
  • The commercial export of certain items that will contribute to the ability of the Cuban people to communicate with people within Cuba, in the United States, and the rest of the world will be authorized under a new Commerce license exception (Support for the Cuban People (SCP)) without requiring a license.  This will include the commercial sale of certain consumer communications devices, related software, applications, hardware, and services, and items for the establishment and update of communications-related systems.
  • Additional services incident to internet-based communications and related to certain exportations and reexportations of communications items will also be authorized by OFAC general license.

 Consumer Communications Devices –

  • Commercial sales, as well as donations, of the export and reexport of consumer communications devices that enable the flow of information to from and among the Cuban peoplesuch as personal computers, mobile phones, televisions, memory devices, recording devices, and consumer software – will be authorized under Commerce’s Consumer Communication Devices (CCD) license exception instead of requiring licenses.

 Financial Services

  • Depository institutions will be permitted to open and maintain correspondent accounts at a financial institution that is a national of Cuba to facilitate the processing of authorized transactions.
  • U.S. financial institutions will be authorized to enroll merchants and process credit and debit card transactions for travel-related and other transactions consistent with section 515.560 of the CACR.  These measures will improve the speed and efficiency of authorized payments between the United States and Cuba.

 Remittances –

  • The limits on generally licensed remittances to Cuban nationals other than certain prohibited Cuban Government and Cuban Communist Party officials will be increased from $500 to $2,000 per quarter.
  • Certain remittances to Cuban nationals for humanitarian projects, support for the Cuban people, or development of private businesses will be generally authorized without limitation.  These general licenses will allow remittances for humanitarian projects in or related to Cuba that are designed to directly benefit the Cuban people; to support the Cuban people through activities of recognized human rights organizations, independent organizations designed to promote a rapid, peaceful transition to democracy, and activities of individuals and non-governmental organizations that promote independent activity intended to strengthen civil society in Cuba; and to support the development of private businesses, including small farms.
  • Authorized travelers will be allowed to carry with them to Cuba $10,000 in total family remittances, periodic remittances, remittances to religious organizations in Cuba, and remittances to students in Cuba pursuant to an educational license.
  • Under an expanded general license, banking institutions, including U.S.-registered brokers or dealers in securities and U.S.-registered money transmitters, will be permitted to process authorized remittances to Cuba without having to apply for a specific license.

Third-Country Effects

  • U.S.-owned or -controlled entities in third countries, including banks, will be authorized to provide goods and services to an individual Cuban national located outside of Cuba, provided the transaction does not involve a commercial exportation of goods or services to or from Cuba.
  • OFAC will generally authorize the unblocking of accounts of Cuban nationals who have permanently relocated outside of Cuba.
  • OFAC is issuing a general license that will authorize transactions related to third-country conferences attended by Cuban nationals.
  • In addition, a general license will authorize foreign vessels to enter the United States after engaging in certain trade with Cuba.

Small Business Growth –

  • Certain micro-financing projects and entrepreneurial and business training, such as for private business and agricultural operations, will be authorized.
  • Also, commercial imports of certain independent Cuban entrepreneur-produced goods and services, as determined by the State Department on a list to be published on its website, will be authorized.

 “Cash in Advance” –

  • The regulatory interpretation of “cash in advance” is being redefined from “cash before shipment” to “cash before transfer of title to, and control of,” the exported items to allow expanded financing of authorized trade with Cuba.

 Supporting Diplomatic Relations and USG Official Business –

  • The President announced the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba.  To facilitate that process, OFAC is adding a general license authorizing transactions with Cuban official missions and their employees in the United States.
  • In addition, in an effort to support important U.S. government interests, an expanded general license will authorize Cuba-related transactions by employees, grantees, and contractors of the U.S. government, foreign governments, and certain international organizations in their official capacities.

Support for the Cuban People –

  • Exports and reexports to provide support for the Cuban people in three areas:  improving living conditions and supporting independent economic activity; strengthening civil society; and improving communications – will be eligible under Commerce’s SCP license exception.
  • To improve living conditions and support independent economic activity, SCP will authorize: (1) building materials, equipment, and tools for use by the private sector to construct or renovate privately-owned buildings, including privately-owned residences, businesses, places of worship, and building for private sector social or recreational use; (2) tools and equipment for private agricultural activity; and (3) tools, equipment, supplies, and instruments for use by private sector entrepreneurs.
  • To strengthen civil society, SCP will authorize export and reexport of donated items and temporary export and reexport by travelers to Cuba of items for use in scientific, archaeological, cultural, ecological, educational, historic preservation, or sporting activities.  SCP will also authorize exports and reexports to human rights organizations, individuals, or non-governmental organizations that promote independent activity intended to strengthen civil society.
  • Travelers will also be able to export temporarily items for use in professional research in the traveler’s profession or full time field of study under SCP.  The activities or research must not be related to items on the United States Munitions List or items controlled for sensitive reasons on the Commerce Control List.
  • To improve communications, SCP will authorize exports and reexports of items for use by news media personnel and U.S. news bureaus.
  • SCP will not authorize the export of items on the Commerce Control List for sensitive reasons such as national security, nuclear proliferation, regional stability, missile technology, and other reasons of similar sensitivity.

Gift Parcels –

  • Consolidated shipments of gift parcels will be eligible for the same Commerce license exception that authorizes individual gift parcels.

Liberalizing License Application Review Policy –

  • Commerce will set forth a general policy of approval for applications to export or reexport items necessary for the environmental protection or enhancement of U.S. and international air and water quality or coastlines (including items that enhance environmental quality through energy efficiency).
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The US Tourism Tsunami to Cuba Begins! U.S. WILL EASE RESTRICTIONS ON TRAVEL TO CUBA

New York Times, JAN. 15, 2015 Original here: TOURISM TSUNAMI By PETER BAKER

New Picture (3).bmpAAA Arriving at Jose Marti International Airport,  June 1966, Photo by Arch Ritter

hav-terminal-3-arrivals-1_26835.jpgaaa Arrivals, José Martí International Airport, 2013

W ASHINGTON — The United States government on Friday will begin making it easier for Americans to travel to Cuba than it has been for more than half a century, opening the door to a new era of contact between neighbors that have been estranged longer than most of their citizens have been alive.

The Obama administration announced on Thursday a set of new regulations to take effect on Friday easing decades-old restrictions on travel, business and remittances, putting into reality some of the changes promised by President Obama last month when he announced plans to resume normal diplomatic relations with Havana.

Under the new regulations, Americans will now be allowed to travel to Cuba for any of a dozen specific reasons without first obtaining a special license from the government. Airlines and travel agents will be allowed to provide service to Cuba without a specific license. And travelers will be permitted to use credit cards and spend money while in the country and bring back up to $400 in souvenirs, including up to $100 in alcohol or tobacco.

The new regulations will also make it easier for American telecommunications providers and financial institutions to do business with Cuba. Americans will be allowed to send more money to Cubans, up to $2,000 every three months instead of the $500 currently permitted.

“These changes will have a direct impact in further engaging and empowering the Cuban people, promoting positive change for Cuba’s citizens,” Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, whose department oversees sanctions policy, said in a statement. “Cuba has real potential for economic growth,” he added, “and by increasing travel, commerce, communications, and private business development between the United States and Cuba, the United States can help the Cuban people determine their own future.”

The administration moved to ease the restrictions after obtaining confirmation that 53 incarcerated people it deemed political prisoners had been released in accordance with the agreement Mr. Obama and President Raúl Castro of Cuba struck last month. Cuba has also released an American held prisoner for years, Alan P. Gross, and a Cuban who had worked as a spy for the United States. Mr. Obama released three Cuban spies who had been held for years and were considered folk heroes in Havana.

The broader trade embargo first imposed by President Dwight D. Eisenhower after the Cuban revolution that brought Mr. Castro’s brother Fidel to power will remain in place unless Congress decides to lift it, as Mr. Obama has urged it to do. But the moves announced on Thursday go further than any president has gone in 50 years to facilitate travel and trade with Cuba.

Critics, led by Senator Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American Republican from Florida, have argued that Mr. Obama is playing into the hands of the Castro brothers by relaxing sanctions without obtaining any meaningful commitment to change on their part. Cuba remains one of the most repressive countries in the world, according to human rights groups and the State Department, which have catalogued the many ways freedom is restricted on the island nation.

Mr. Obama argued that the approach of the last 50 years had not worked and that it was time to try something new. The president is sending an assistant secretary of state, Roberta S. Jacobson, to Havana next week to discuss migration and other issues in the relationship as he moves toward re-establishing a full-fledged embassy with an ambassador.

Americans for years have found ways to circumvent travel restrictions to Cuba. Many simply fly to another country like Mexico first and then head to Cuba from there. According to the Cuban government, 98,000 American citizens visited Cuba in 2012, a year after Mr. Obama previously loosened the restrictions, twice as many as traveled there five years earlier. That does not include perhaps hundreds of thousands of Cuban-Americans who travel there each year but are not counted by the Havana government because they are still considered Cubans.

Under previous rules, Americans wanting to travel legally to Cuba had to justify their trips under 12 categories and then obtain a specific license from the Treasury Department to do so. Among those categories are family visits; journalistic, religious, educational, professional and humanitarian activities; artistic or sports performances; and “support for the Cuban people.” Private firms arranged “people to people” programs to allow Americans to travel under those categories.

Under the new regulations, Americans will not need licenses to certify that they fit those categories. As a practical matter, experts say that will make it possible for many more Americans to travel without having to use such firms or satisfy government agents about the specific purpose of their visits.

Moreover, travelers will be allowed to spend money in Cuba, which was previously restricted.

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 Departures, José Martí International Airport, 2013

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José Martí International Airport, 1966

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DESPITE CHANGES, U.S. BUSINESSES STILL FACE A MINEFIELD OF SANCTIONS IN CUBA

Washington Post,  January 11, 2015

By Joshua Partlow and Nick Miroff

Original here: MINEFIELD      

MEXICO CITY — To the Cuban government, it is “The Blockade,” and sometimes, “The Genocidal Blockade,” as if U.S. Navy gunboats had circled the island and cut off its inhabitants.

The “Cuban Embargo,” as it’s known in the United States, has failed for 54 years to push the Communist government from power. The U.S. economic sanctions have left Cuba neither fully isolated nor able to conduct completely normal business relations with other countries and foreign companies.

Now, as President Obama plans to poke new holes in the patchwork of financial, commercial and travel restrictions first imposed by the Eisenhower administration, American businesses are eagerly awaiting new opportunities on the island. But a maze of regulatory obstacles remains, and the embargo may endure as the defining feature of U.S.-Cuba relations long after an American embassy reopens in Havana.

For American companies, the sanctions look “like a scary forest of monsters,” said Robert Muse, a Washington lawyer who specializes in Cuba trade issues. It is also not clear whether the Cuban government will truly be open for business and ready to allow U.S. firms to regain a foothold on an island where American brands and products are revered but the government remains deeply wary of steamrolling Yanqui capitalism.

With only 11 million people and a gross domestic product about the size of West Virginia’s, Cuba isn’t exactly a grand prize for corporations. But it represents pure potential for the U.S. tourism industry, as well as agriculture companies, firms that can overhaul its rudimentary telecommunications infrastructure, and many others.

The top State Department official focused on Latin America, Roberta S. Jacobson, is scheduled to arrive Jan. 21 to begin laying the groundwork for the reopening of a U.S. Embassy on the island. She will be followed by Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and a U.S. business delegation on a “commercial diplomacy mission.”

The Obama administration has proposed a few basic changes to the Cuba rules, such as allowing U.S. companies to export building materials for private homes, agricultural equipment for farmers, and telecommunications equipment. The U.S. government will allow new relationships with Cuban banks, and limited imports of Cuban goods such as rum and cigars.

Raúl Castro and other Cuban officials have been quick to temper enthusiasm on the island for Obama’s moves with reminders that the sanctions remain a formidable obstacle to truly normal relations. They can be lifted only by the U.S. Congress.

According to Havana, the sanctions have inflicted $1.1 trillion worth of damage on the island’s economy over the decades — a figure that will almost certainly enter into future negotiations over the billions of dollars’ worth of pending claims by U.S. litigants whose property was seized after Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution. Cuba claims the sanctions hurt its citizens by depriving them of U.S. medical technologies and pharmaceuticals, although U.S. officials say such sales are generally allowed with export licenses from the Treasury Department.

Though the restrictions block most U.S. commerce with the island, the Castro government, which has a virtual monopoly on foreign trade, does business with other nations all over the world, though not always smoothly. On the streets of Havana, new Hyundai and Kia sedans from South Korea dart among the old Soviet Ladas and battered Chevrolet Bel Airs from the Eisenhower years. Cuban resort kitchens are stocked with Spanish wine, Chilean salmon and filet mignon flown in from Canada. There’s a Lacoste store selling polo shirts under the colonnaded archways of Old Havana.

With shipments of subsidized petroleum, Venezuela, Cuba’s top trading partner, keeps the island’s lights on. From China, the Cuban government can get just about anything. These competitors have eaten away at whatever small beachhead certain American companies gained in Cuba over the past decade or so. After a series of devastating hurricanes in the island nation, Washington made it easier for Cuba to take advantage of exceptions to the embargo, allowing for the purchase of American food on a cash-only basis.

Within a few years, the United States had become one of Cuba’s top 10 import partners. U.S. food sales peaked at more than $700 million in 2008. Today, state-run supermarkets still stock cornflakes, Heinz ketchup and American oatmeal. Apples from Virginia show up in big white boxes at holiday time. Sales have slowed, though, as Cuba has boosted trade with ­Brazil and European countries that can offer financing and credit. American companies sold an estimated $300­­ million worth of food to Cuba last year, nearly half of which consisted of frozen chicken parts.

“We’ve lost a lot of market share over the years, and we want to get that back,” said Mark Al­bertson, director of strategic market development at the Illinois Soybean Association. His organization, and American producers of poultry, soy, pork, corn, milk and other goods, have banded together in a new coalition to try to lobby Congress to end the embargo. Obama’s proposal, although a good step, Al­bertson said, “doesn’t go far enough.”

Even with the new changes, companies expecting to do business in Cuba say they are going to be hamstrung by U.S. restrictions on financing and credit. There are “so many exemptions and hoops we have to jump through that make it not competitive,” Albertson said.

Banking is a big problem. The Obama administration has hit foreign financial institutions with more Cuba-related fines than any previous administration, according to Cuba’s Foreign Ministry. In July, the French bank BNP Paribas agreed to pay an $8.9 billion fine from the U.S. Treasury Department for Cuba-related violations. The German financial ­giant Commerzbank said last month it will pay $1 billion in a similar settlement. The banks broke the law because they routed the transactions through U.S. territory, regulators said.

Muse, the trade attorney, said American banks remain skeptical that Cuba is worth the trouble. The confusing overlay of U.S. laws — from the USA Patriot Act to money-laundering statutes — convinces some that it is easier to avoid the island entirely.

These hurdles, as well as the Communist-ruled island’s difficult business climate, have led some to conclude that the current excitement over the U.S.-Cuba rapprochement is mostly hype and wishful thinking, and that little will change for American businesses seeking to invest in Cuba.

“They’re believing what they hope will be,” said John Kavulich, senior policy adviser at the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, a nonprofit group that includes major American businesses. “And they’re forgetting that the Cuban government is not about to say: ‘We’re going to accept everything that you want to do to us, knowing that your goal is to change us.’ ” “The Cuban government will allow only what it believes it can control,” he added.

In an interview, Commerce Secretary Pritzker highlighted travel, agriculture and telecommunications as areas of opportunity for U.S. firms.

Though many are skeptical that Cuba will allow the U.S. government to fiddle with its Internet or cellphone services, given Communist officials’ concerns about spying, Pritzker said there were still opportunities created by the president’s opening. With relatively few Cubans owning cellphones, and even fewer with Internet access, she said, “there’s enormous telecommunications infrastructure that needs to be put in.”

“We have to respect the fact that by statute the embargo is still in place,” Pritzker said, but that “commercial engagement can change the diplomatic relations between our two countries.” And, she added, “the president is encouraging us to go.”

Gabriela Martinez contributed to this report.

Joshua Partlow is The Post’s bureau chief in Mexico. He has served previously as the bureau chief in Kabul and as a correspondent in Brazil and Iraq.

Nick Miroff is a Latin America correspondent for The Post, roaming from the U.S.-Mexico borderlands to South America’s southern cone. He has been a staff writer since 2006.

 OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA Manzana_Gomez-Interior,_Centro_Habana_-_April_2003Above two photos: Manzana de Gómez (Gómez Block), Parque Central, Havana’s first shopping mall, converted to apartments, probably on the way back to its original function.

Cuba, Havana  Plaza Carlos III Shopping Mall

Plaza Carlos III Shopping Mall, Central Havana

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“NO ES FACÍL”: THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN CUBA–U.S. RELATIONS

By Rafael Hernandez

January 8, 2015

Original here: “No Es Facíl”

Cubans have become used to preparing for war with the United States, not for dialogue and negotiation. U.S. policy-makers have specialized in attacking the island, which has kept them from learning to understand it. Neither side has been trained to deal with an adversary rather than an enemy. Each side’s success in a scenario of rapprochement depends on its ability to acquire such knowledge and turn it into real policy.

What does the United States have to gain in negotiations with Cuba? It hopes to moderate future Cuban actions, increase its ability to influence Cuban politics, and obtain benefits from specific areas of bilateral activity by doing the following:

1. Responding to a constituency of interest groups (agribusiness, biomedical, tourism, maritime transportation, health care, higher education, sports, entertainment, and perhaps oil) and freeing South Florida Cuban-American people and businesses, hostages of established policies, to organize in favor of tighter ties;

2. Paving the way for the 5,911 U.S. companies that were nationalized in 1960 to negotiate some kind of compensation under Cuban law (as Spanish, Canadian, French, Swiss, and other foreign firms did long ago);

3. Removing a point of contention with Latin America and U.S. allies that rejected the Helms–Burton Act on free-trade grounds, and easing the bilateral tension within international organizations like the U.N. Human Rights Commission;

4. Improving the flow of information between the two countries via legitimate exchange of radio and TV programs between public institutions, a fiber-optic cable connection, and improved mail, telephone, and Internet service;

5. Consolidating migration agreements (signed in 1994 and 1995); and

6. Reaching formal agreements to back ongoing cooperation in drug traffic interception, naval and air security, military and coast guard coordination, environmental protection, and other areas.

U.S. recognition of the socialist government favors Cuba’s independence and self-determination. For Cuba, dialogue with the United States could lead to additional benefits:

1. Lessening the cost of security and defense and the burden on economic development imposed by hostility and a multilateral embargo that affects Cuba’s relations with the rest of the world;

2. Gaining access to U.S. markets and capital flows, with a multiplier effect on all of Cuba’s foreign relations;

3. Forming alliances with various sectors of U.S. society;

4. Facilitating cooperation in areas related to geographic contiguity, like transportation and other trade-related issues, and environmental concerns, such as ocean pollution in the Florida Straits and protection of migratory species; and

5. Pursuing the return of the Guantánamo naval base territory to actual Cuban sovereign control. same Cuban regime that has been called illegitimate for half a century), and instate reciprocal agreements in place of unilateralism.

But there are also costs: The United States has to confront long-established resistance within the permanent bureaucracy and the Cuban-American right wing, admit that its Cuban policy has failed (and offer de jure recognition to the same Cuban regime that has been called illegitimate for half a century), and instate reciprocal agreements in place of unilateralism.

Although many Cubans favor détente and appreciate its economic benefits, they also remain worried about U.S. political and ideological intentions. In his recent statement on the new Cuban policy (Dec. 17), U.S. President Barack Obama stressed that U.S. policy will continue to focus “on issues related to democracy and human rights in Cuba … and promote our values through engagement.”

U.S.-style democracy and capitalist values are framed as a “peaceful evolution” strategy when applied to other cases (China, Vietnam) – another version of the old “regime change” policy.

Some Cubans are concerned about the effects of this policy, because it aims to undermine the socialist consensus among some groups in a period of changes during which social and political cohesion are of strategic value. U.S. government agencies and die-hard anti-communist groups in Miami, as well as their representatives in Congress, could use this opportunity to find new ways to fund political opposition, sending anti-government propaganda and trying to influence the Cuban domestic context.

The Cuban government finds itself in an unprecedented situation. It must choose between playing defensively and developing a new proactive strategy. Its ability to build up alliances and consensus will be decisive.

The identities of U.S. allies in Latin America, Europe, and Cuba are quite obvious. So, too, are the identities of Cuban allies, including many Latin American and Caribbean governments, emerging powers like Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), and some paradoxical ones, such as U.S. corporations, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, the U.S Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the silent majority of the Cuban-American people.

The main weakness Cuba needs to overcome is not its lesser physical power, but its siege mentality. The United States, on the other hand, needs to overcome its sense of superpower arrogance vis-à-vis a small neighbor. Most counterproductive policies on both sides, from the U.S. Bay of Pigs fiasco to Cuba’s Internet restrictions, have been the consequence of these weaknesses.

As long as bilateral rapprochement moves forward, new issues could appear on the table. Cuba has only two foreign policy principles for negotiating differences, particularly with big powers like Europe and the United States: no preconditions and no double standards.

Cuba must figure out how to keep domestic political affairs within the area of dialogue and exchange rather than negotiation. Structural transformation in the Cuban economic and political system, individual liberties (particularly expression, movement, and association), the role of the mass media, and other issues related to citizens’ rights are internal affairs. To subject them to the dynamic of bilateral agreements with the United States could be politically counterproductive in terms of Cuban public opinion, even in the eyes of Cubans pushing for such changes. It would be like subordinating the patterns of life within a family to agreements with the upstairs neighbor.

Members of Cuban civil society, including rank and file party members, agree that dialogue with the United States may depressurize the domestic atmosphere and facilitate change, encourage generational turnover in the leadership, lead to a more decentralized system, and contribute to empowering the most constructive elements of both cultures and peoples.

Those who are in favor of a reformed Cuban socialism, not a Caribbean capitalism, support a détente with the United States that may help dissipate the siege mentality and lead to a political environment that facilitates a more democratic model.

Cuban socialists aspire to a kind of democracy that is defined by more than just a commitment to periodic elections within a highly regulated multiparty system. The Cuban public debate points toward radical democratization of the society and system as a whole – not just the polity, but also the community, schools, workplaces, economic management, and social and political organizations, including the Cuban Communist Party.

For the Cuban government, the issue will no longer be how to keep the ideological enemy from penetrating, because in a sense it is already inside. Instead, the government must be concerned with how to reshape and promote the domestic consensus, reactivate a socialist political culture on a new basis, and get rid of old rituals that have lost their meaning.

A new Cuba–U.S. relationship could certainly improve relations between Cuban-Americans and their counterparts on the island. Would the Cuban-American elite keep paying its dues to the declining industry of anti-Castroism as real business between the two shores prospers? Would its members hold on to their identities as ideologues rather than businesspersons, or would they opt to behave like other historical overseas economic elites (Vietnamese, Chinese)?

Finally, to what degree can those hostile networks withstand the emergence of economic and strategic interests that would broaden the surface of contact between the two sides? If this new correlation of forces emerges, classical torpedoes launched by hostile networks to destabilize the process of rapprochement will be less likely to succeed.

The conflict has already entered a transition phase. As often occurs between human beings, when favorable circumstances arise, a first step can unleash a march that exceeds all expectations. As President Obama said in his statement (adopting a Cuban expression made popular by Kermit the Frog), “no es fácil” – “it is not easy.” Although the process will be complicated, the most costly point for a U.S. president is now past: The ice has been broken.

rafaelhernandezRafael Hernandez

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A VIEW FROM HAVANA ON CUBAN-U.S. RELATIONS

By Miriam Leiva

Huffigton Post, December 8, 2015

 Original here: View from Havana

The worrisome early announcement on December 17 — that Raul Castro would address the nation live on television that morning, concerning the United States — turned out to be the news many Cubans feared they would not live to hear. “As a result of a dialogue at the highest level, that included my phone conversation yesterday with President Obama, we were able to move forward in the solution of some issues of interest for both nations,” said the Cuban President. Cubans then burst into joy.

Among the ways they’re moving forward are the establishment of diplomatic relations and the release of contractor Alan Gross and a spy in prison for almost 20 years in exchange for the three Cubans serving sentences for spying in the U.S. For the last 55 years, the government here had been hammering Cuban’s minds, sending them to trenches through the island nation and abroad, depriving them of food, clothes, money, entertainment and the Internet, closely watching and repressing, alleging perils and shortages imposed by American imperialism and the embargo. Neither Santa Claus nor the Three Wise Men, but Barack Obama and Raul Castro, who anticipated them, brought hope on December 17.

Amazed Cubans then watched the “enemy” announcing the new measures, and read Obama’s speech published next to Raul Castro’s in the newspapers. Since then, anywhere one goes, there has been only one main issue in conversations — broad interpretations and hopeful expectations on the window of opportunities opened by Obama, expanding the proactive people-to-people policy started in 2009. Quiet concern and resistance from the old guard and its entourage exists, yet Raul Castro’s dramatic move shows their lack of influence over the government and their adaptation to preserve the privileges that still maintain. For the first time, Fidel Castro has not been in the spotlight. The major shift in his 56-years-long reign — even if he gave his approval — is too difficult for him to face (although grave illness cannot be discounted here).

The historic decisions by both presidents depend on how they are implemented, and how much the Cuban government is willing to allow. Nevertheless, once Pandora’s box is opened, it cannot be shut. Raul Castro desperately needs to ease tensions and reestablish relations with the U.S. The regime faces a 25-years-long economic crisis, which it has proven incapable of surmounting — and which could worsen if there is decreased financial support from Venezuela.

It has made limited changes in the framework of updating an economic model that has been a failure for 56 years. It is desperately seeking financial support and substantial foreign investment to recapitalize and develop, when the current international economic environment advises caution and assurance to property and benefits. The new Foreign Investment Law enacted in 2014 is intended to do so, but there are flaws. The Mariel Port and its Special Development Zone should give a boost to the Cuban economy, yet it depends on the U.S. lifting many restrictions and increasing trade.

Raul Castro is stepping down in three years, and is currently paving the way for new leaders. This period is crucial for the transition and the future of Cuba, both for the civil society and foreign partners. Mainly Brazil, Russia, and China have been positioning themselves in different sectors in Cuba, yet Americans and Cuban-Americans have been prevented by their government from participating in economic and commercial endeavors with Cuba — and from contributing their much-needed knowhow and technology. Moreover, Americans cannot travel freely to Cuba, and Cubans cannot benefit from the exchange of ideas, values and expertise.

For the United States, this new dialogue with Cuba eliminates an obstacle in the relations with all of Latin America and the Caribbean. President Obama stated an unwavering commitment to democracy, human rights and civil society, a continuation of U.S. programs aimed at promoting positive change in Cuba and encouragement of reforms in high-level engagement with Cuban officials. Many dissidents and opponents support the new American approach in the relations with the Cuban government, but many others do not. Raul Castro reaffirmed the usual accusations against the “counterrevolutionaries” a few days after reaching the agreement. He seemed to be warning the enthusiastic population that political openness was out of the question — and reminding the opposition that the regime was as repressive as ever. Nevertheless, the government has been losing credibility from its unfulfilled promises, and from the critical economic and social situation.

Awareness and empowerment have developed, and the interaction with Cuban-Americans and Americans visiting Cuba, and Cubans traveling to U.S., has played an important role. The years to come are full of challenges and threats in Cuba, but also of hope and opportunities.

red_Miriam-Oscar_8-5-11-1_400x400Miriam Leiva, with her husband,  the late Oscar Chepe

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ENDING CUBA EMBARGO URGED BY NEW AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY COALITION

By Carter Dougherty,  January 08, 2015, Bloomberg

Original here: Coalition

A new agribusiness coalition is seeking an immediate end of the U.S. economic embargo on Cuba, prodding Congress to act as the Obama administration eases some restrictions in place for more than 50 years.

The U.S. Agriculture Coalition for Cuba, with more than 25 companies and farm trade associations, is being created Thursday in Washington to urge repeal of a 1996 law that made permanent sanctions on Cuba after Fidel Castro seized power in a communist revolution.

“It’s going to take time for Congress to get comfortable with Cuba,” Paul Johnson, the president of Chicago Foods International LLC, a company that handles logistics for products sold to Cuba. “But we need to end this embargo.”

President Barack Obama last month used the limited flexibility allowed by the law to ease travel, trade and finance with Cuba. But the economic embargo, in place since the early 1960s, needs congressional action to remove the restraints.

Johnson, vice-chairman of the coalition, said pushing for a quick end to the embargo might not be a pragmatic approach because Obama’s limited moves have already drawn criticism from Republicans in control of both the House and Senate. “But there’s a lot of sentiment for trade, and moving forward.”

The coalition will be led by Devry Boughner Vorwerk, director of international business relations at Cargill Inc., the closely held Minneapolis-based multinational

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IS CUBA READY FOR LIFE WITHOUT US TRADE EMBARGO?

   Cuba Mar 2014 071 By Carlos Batista, 8 January 2015

Original here: IS CUBA READY

Havana (AFP) – As US President Barack Obama prepares to ask Congress to lift the Cuban trade embargo — in line with his decision to normalize diplomatic ties — some Cubans wonder if they’re ready for such an economic tidal wave.

The embargo outlawing most economic and financial transactions with the communist-run island was decreed in 1962 by then president John F. Kennedy and severely toughened under the so-called Helms-Burton law of 1996.

The Havana government regularly cites the embargo as an impediment to Cuban development. Damages — the opportunity cost of all the trade that never happened — are often estimated by Cuban officials at $100 billion over 50 years.

For opponents of the Cuban regime and some observers, the sanctions have certainly hurt the Western hemisphere’s only communist nation. But they have also given the government a target to blame for its troubled economy.

Soon, “the Cuban government will no longer have the big excuse that the island’s problems stem from the American embargo,” Patricio Navia, of the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at New York University, told AFP

The lifting of US sanctions would allow an injection of US capital into Cuba’s economy and the introduction of new products in a market that is light years away from the levels of a typical Western consumer society.

But Cuba’s economy — 90 percent controlled by the state — is not ready to welcome international investors and companies, said Carlos Alzugaray, a former diplomat who is now a university professor.  Reforms announced by President Raul Castro in 2008 have either yet to bear fruit or are still awaiting implementation, he said. “Fortunately the lifting of the blockage will be a slow process and probably gradual, which will allow for adaptation” in Cuba, said Alzugaray. He called for deeper and faster market-based reforms of the Cuban economy, a legacy of the Soviet model and now tottering on its last legs.

After six years of reforms undertaken by President Raul Castro, who took over for his ailing brother Fidel, the heroic leader of the Cuban revolution, the economy is still sputtering. GDP growth in 2014 was just 1.3 percent. Market-oriented changes have really only just begun.

The government encourages people to start up small businesses of their own and has adopted a law on foreign investment.  But decrepit infrastructure and industry, as well as the sluggish local bureaucracy, seem, at least for now, to be scaring away investors with money to spend.

In addition, Cuba has had two currencies — the official peso and another that is convertible — for more than 20 years. The government said more than a year ago it would do away with this messy system, but so far it has not.

Obama announced he intended to push for the embargo to be lifted when he made the historic announcement on December 17 that he would start the process of restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba. But lifting the sanctions is up to Congress, whose two chambers are now controlled by a Republican party opposed to such a change in Cuba policy. Lengthy debate in both chambers lies ahead.

Lifting the embargo could increase Cuba’s trade not just with the United States but also with countries that deal with the United States. Under current US law, companies that do business in America can be fined for doing business with Cuba.

Jerome Cottin-Bizonne, managing director of the Franco-Cuban rum manufacturer Havana Club International — owned jointly by the Pernod Ricard drinks group and the Cuban government — recently said his firm was ready to “conquer the US market,” which, he said, was brimming with potential. But for the time being, prospects for Cuban exporters seem limited. Only rum and Cuba’s famed cigars seem to have real potential to make inroads in the US market. However, they account for just $600 million a year in export revenue, less than four percent of Cuba’s $17.5 billion-total.

Cuba’s top export, generating $11 billion in revenue, are professionals, including doctors. But physicians are not needed in the United States. And Cuban-made medicines, which account for $900 million a year in export revenue, would have trouble obtaining approval in the US, which has some of the strictest regulations.

Cubans could also find their access to movies and computer software drastically changed. Currently, under the shelter of the embargo, Cubans pirate much of their content, but if the sanctions are lifted they would have to honor copyrights and pay.

But for better or for worse, said Esteban Morales, a specialist on US-Cuban relations, the country would have to get used to life without sanctions the same way it got used to the embargo in the first place. “What are we going to say, ‘postpone the lifting of the sanctions, because we are not ready’?”

“Listo”

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REACTIONS TO DECEMBER 2014 US-CUBA STEPS TOWARDS RAPPROCHEMENT: Farber, Feinberg and Piccone

SAMUEL FARBER, “THE ALTERNATIVE IN CUBA

Jacobin, December 22, 2014

 Original Article Here: The resumption of US – Cuban relations is a real victory. But Cuban workers face renewed economic liberalization with little political opening.

…………

Conclusion

Independently of the considerations that led the governments of Cuba and the United States to reach this agreement, it is a major gain for the Cuban people.

First, because it acknowledges that the imperial power of the US was not able to coerce the imposition of its socio-economic and political system, handing a victory for the principle of national self-determination. It is up to Cubans and Cubans alone to decide the destiny of their country. Second, because in practical terms, it can improve the standard of living of Cubans and help to liberalize, although not necessarily democratize, the conditions of their political oppression and economic exploitation, making it easier to organize and act to defend their interests in an autonomous fashion against both the state and the new capitalists.

This has been the case of China, where thousands of protests occur every year to protect the standard of living and rights of the mass of the population in spite of the persistence of the one-party state.

Contrary to what many liberals thought right after the Cuban Revolution, the issue was never whether the end of the blockade would lead the Castro brothers to become more democratic. That possibility was never and is not in the cards, except for those who believe that the establishment of Cuban Communism was merely a reaction to American imperialism instead of what Che Guevara admitted was half the outcome of imperialist constraint and half the outcome of the Cuban leaders choice.

What is real is the likelihood that the end of the blockade will undermine the support for the Castro government thereby facilitating the resistance and political formulation of alternatives to its rule.

That Cuba will be free from the grasp of US imperialism even if the economic blockade comes to an end is not likely. The more “normal” imperialist power broadly experienced in the Global South will replace the more coercive and criminal one of the blockade era, especially if a successful alliance develops between American capital and the native state capitalists of the emerging Sino-Vietnamese model, as it happened in China and Vietnam. Even at the purely political level, there are many conflicts that are clearly foreseeable, like, for example, one that was left unmentioned in the Obama-Castro agreement involving the return of revolutionary exiles, such as Assata Shakur, to prison in the United States.

With the passing of the historic generation of revolutionary leaders within the next decade, a new political landscape will emerge where left-wing opposition political action may resurface and give strength to the nascent critical left in Cuba. Some may argue that since socialism of a democratic and revolutionary orientation is not likely to be on the immediate agenda, there is no point to put forward such a perspective. But it is this political vision advocating for the democratic self-management of Cuban society that can shape a compelling resistance to the economic liberalization that is likely to come to the island.

By invoking solidarity with the most vulnerable, and calling for class, racial and gender equality, a movement can build unity against both the old and the emerging oppression.

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Richard Feinberg,DIPLOMATIC SHOCK AND AWE: OBAMA ELATES CUBANS,

|Brookings, December 22, 2014 9:00am

Original Here: Diplomatic Shock and Awe: Obama Elates Cubans

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Focusing on Next Steps

The U.S. bureaucracy is now under pressure to transform Obama’s promises into deeds. The upcoming April Summit of the Americas in Panama sets a deadline for issuing the new regulations liberalizing travel and commerce. In a speech before the National Assembly on December 20, Castro announced that he would personally attend the Summit, where he would “express our positions with respect for all of the other heads of state.” So the Panama conclave will bring Obama and Castro face-to-face. They will want to be able to report real progress in warming relations and in improving the economic prospects of ordinary Cubans.

Already there is speculation that the Panama Summit will witness a second round of initiatives, fed by Obama’s pledge to discuss with Congress a formal and full lifting of economic sanctions.

Both governments have raised hopes. But the Cuban government, accustomed to operating in deep secrecy, will have to learn how to manage popular expectations in a more relaxed international environment—where the United States can no longer be blamed for its own economic mistakes. And if promises are kept, Cuba will finally enter a post-Cold War era where informed citizens have ready access to the Internet and a world of information.

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Ted Piccone ON CUBA, OBAMA GOES LONG AND CASTRO HOLDS ON”

Brookings, December 22, 2014 9:51am

Original Article Here: On Cuba, Obama and Castro

Introduction

It’s hard to overstate the sense of relief and joy that was felt in both Washington and Havana as Presidents Barack Obama and Raúl Castro simultaneously announced a breakthrough in their two countries’ long-running hostilities. There was, of course, much anger and hand-wringing as well and a host of questions about what happens next. But it’s worth taking a moment to understand how both sides got to this point and why it portends a major shift in U.S. foreign policy and potentially, in Cuban society.

………………….

.Conclusion

The head-snapping confluence of events on December 17—the simultaneous presidential announcements and returning flights home of prized Americans and Cubans; the holiday season celebration of loss and redemption and hope in the Jewish, Catholic and Afro-Cuban traditions; and the powerful language employed by President Obama in particular—make this a watershed moment in U.S. foreign policy. It marks the beginning of the end of five decades of hostility between two proud neighbors with distinct systems of governance. It symbolizes the end of the Cold War just as tremors of a new cold war between Washington and Moscow are growing. It signifies a reset in U.S.-Latin American relations on the eve of an unprecedented summit meeting of all the region’s leaders. It recognizes the failure of comprehensive punitive sanctions against a general population in favor of targeted sanctions for specific transgressions, as recently adopted in the case of Venezuela. It underscores that democratic change cannot be imposed by external coercion but only by supporting indigenous citizen movements willing to take the difficult and brave steps to demand it themselves. It declares the end of the strangle-hold of a minority faction of Cuban-American hardliners on an important foreign policy issue that affects all Americans. And most importantly, it restores hope on both sides of the Florida straits that change will continue, as it must, to improve the livelihoods and rights of millions of citizens in both countries. It was the big enchilada.

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POLL: SUPPORT INCREASES FOR LIFTING CUBA EMBARGO, TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS

Washington Post: December 23 at 7:00 AM

By Scott Clement

Original Article here: Poll on Embargo

A large majority of Americans support establishing diplomatic ties with Cuba, and even larger — and growing — majorities support an end to trade and travel bans to the country, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The national survey finds little erosion in public support after President Obama announced sweeping changes in U.S.-Cuba policy, despite his weak approval ratings nationally. Sixty-four percent support establishing ties with Cuba, similar to 66 percent in a 2009 Post-ABC poll asking whether the United States should do so.

Sixty-eight percent support ending the trade embargo with Cuba — up 11 points from 2009 — and 74 percent support ending travel restrictions to Cuba — a jump of 19 points from five years ago. The poll described each policy in general and did not mention Obama’s action, maintaining broad comparability to previous surveys.

Poll
Washington Post-ABC News poll Dec. 17-21, 2014 among 1,011 adults conducted on conventional and cellular phones.

Support for allowing trade and travel with Cuba has grown across the board, even among Republicans, who were most skeptical. In 2009, 36 percent of Republicans said the United States should end the trade embargo and 40 percent favored an end to travel restrictions. But support has grown more than 20 points among Republicans in the years since, with 57 percent now supporting trade with Cuba and 64 percent supporting travel between the countries.

But Republicans continue to split on establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba overall, with 49 percent supporting and 47 percent opposing the idea — a similar split to 2009. The intra-party disagreement was aired publicly this week by two potential GOP presidential candidates, as Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) forcefully rejected Obama’s move and Rand Paul (Ky.) voiced encouragement.

Leaders of the Republican-controlled Congress appear to be following Rubio’s lead and seeking ways to block Obama’s new policy, according to the Post’s Paul Kane and Ed O’Keefe. Key possibilities include cutting funding for new diplomatic operations and denying confirmation to an ambassador to Cuba. At minimum, Congress could ensure the ban on most imports and exports between countries remains in place.

The GOP aside, majorities in nearly every other major demographic group in the survey support establishing diplomatic ties with Cuba, along with scuttling travel and trade bans. Independents support renewed diplomatic ties by a 63-32 margin, with 67 percent supporting lifting the embargo and 72 percent backing travel between countries. More than three quarters of Democrats support all three proposals tested in the poll.

Hispanics are among the most supportive of re-starting diplomatic relations with Cuba; 75 percent support doing so, while 20 percent are opposed. The survey did not include a large enough sample of Hispanics or detailed questions to examine attitudes of Cuban Americans.

A separate survey of Americans with Cuban heritage conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International found the group closely divided on Obama’s decision. Forty-four percent agreed with “Obama’s announcement to begin normalizing relations with Cuba,” while 48 percent disagreed. The survey , sponsored by El Nuevo Herald, the Miami Herald and the Tampa Bay Times, found a clear generational split, with 64 percent of U.S.-born Cubans supporting Obama’s policy while 53 percent of Cuban immigrants opposed it.

The Post-ABC poll was conducted Dec. 17 to 21 among a random national sample of 1,011 adults reached on both conventional and cellular phones. Results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Bendixen & Amadni poll of was conducted Dec. 17-18 among a random national sample of 400 Cuban-American adults reached on conventional and cellular phones. The sample was drawn by oversampling areas where the Census indicates Cubans make up a larger share of the population. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of 4.9 percentage points.

 

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