Tag Archives: General Economic Analyses

New Publication, CUBA: PEOPLE, CULTURE, HISTORY

A near-encyclopedic volume on Cuba was recently published by Charles Scribner’s Sons but has received surprisingly limited publicity- at least from my perspective up here in winter-time in the True North. I have not yet seen the volume myself nor have I even seen the Table of Contents. However, the description of the substance of the volume below looks interesting.

If my finances were infinite, I would certainly buy a copy, even though the price ranges from $284.44 to $454.95, depending on the seller.

I contributed two essays on the Cuban economy. These are available here:

Archibald Ritter  “The Cuban Economy, Revolution, 1959-1990″

Archibald Ritter, “Cuba’s Economy During the Special Period, 1990-2010″

Here is a brief description of the volume:

Editor in Chief: Alan West-Durán, Northeastern University

 Associate Editors: Victor Fowler Calzada, Unión de Escritores y Artistas de Cuba (UNEAC); Gladys E. García Pérez, Unión de Escritores y Artistas de Cuba (UNEAC); Louis A Pérez, Jr., University of North Carolina; César Salgado, University of Texas; Maria de los Angeles Torres, University of Illinois, Chicago

Charles Scribner’s Sons,  An Imprint of Gale, Cengage Learning 2011

 INTRODUCTION

In an exceedingly complex and changing global situation,  understanding Cuba is an important and challenging task. The Scribner CUBA: People, Culture, History is a reference work that goes beyond a mere presentation of facts, biographies, and “ready reference” information, which is widely available on the Internet, to offer deep interpretation. The book will offer on the one hand, twenty-one interpretative essays on major topics in Cuban history, culture and society, as well as over one hundred twenty-five shorter essays on artistic, literary, and nonfiction works; major events and places of cultural significance.

The major essays will not only cover Economics, Sugar, Tobacco, Religion, and Food, but also Cuba and its Diasporas, Ecology and Environment, Sexuality, Gender, Race and Ethnicity, the Arts, Language, Sports and Cuban Ways of Knowing and Being, among others.

The short essays will focus on specific literary works, photographs, paintings, political documents, speeches, testimonies, historical dates, key places and cities on the island and abroad. For example:  literary works include “Los Versos sencillos”; “Paradiso”; and “The Mambo Kings Play Songs of Love”; works of nonfiction include: “Cuba: Azúcar y Población”; “Indagación del choteo”; and La historia me absolverá”; works of visual art: “La Jungla”; and “Los Hijos del agua conversando con un pez”; works of music: “Guantanamera”; “Misa cubana”; and “Mambo #5”; cinema: “Lucía”; and “Fresa y chocolate”; events: “Violence and Insurrection in 1912: A Racial Conflict”; and “January 1, 1959”; and places of cultural significance: “Baracoa”; “Holguín”; “Isla de Pinos”; “Spain”; and “New York,” to name a few examples.

By combining longer overview pieces with short and focused descriptive and analytical ones, CUBA  aims to give the curious and interested reader a way to comprehend the country by presenting the major forces that have shaped the island historically and culturally. Rather than overwhelm the reader with thousands of entries and biographies, CUBA offers a close look at major themes that are emblematic to the country’s unique history. CUBA is a reference guide for readers undertaking a journey of comprehension; it is not a work that presumes to have all of the answers.

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Jeff Franks: Key political risks to watch in Cuba

By Jeff Franks, for Reuters; HAVANA | Fri Feb 3, 2012 10:57am EST

HAVANA Feb 3 (Reuters) – Cuba is opening the door to private management of some state-run cafes and food service outlets in an apparent test of further reforms aimed at keeping the island one of the world’s last communist countries.

The government said food prices rose nearly 20 percent in 2011 in a warning sign that economic change will not be painless.

Spain’s Repsol YPF brought the massive Scarabeo 9 drilling rig into Cuban waters and began drilling what Cuba hopes will be the first of many wells in its untapped offshore oilfields.

ECONOMIC REFORMS

In eastern Holguin province, officials said 211 state-owned cafeterias would be leased to employeesin a semi-privatization similar to what has been done nationally with barber shops and beauty salons the past year and recently expanded to other service businesses such as watch repair and carpentry shops. The Holguin program has not been mentioned in national media, but is likely a trial run before it becomes generalized, as was done with the other services.

The government, which wants to slash a million jobs from its payroll and encourage more private initiative, has said it will turn many small businesses, nationalized since the 1960s, over to employee cooperatives. It is encouraging self-employment, with more than 362,000 people now working for themselves. Economy Minister Adel Yzquierdo Rodriguez told the National Assembly in late December that 170,000 state jobs would be cut in 2012 and as many as 240,000 new non-state jobs added. The government’s goal is to have up to 40 percent of the island workforce of 5.2 million in non-state jobs by 2015.

President Raul Castro has made reform of Cuba’s lagging agricultural sector a top priority and the Cuban state, which owns 70 percent of the country’s land, has leased 3.5 million acres (1.4 million hectares) to 150,000 private farmers since he succeeded older brother Fidel Castro as president in February 2008. In some areas, the state has increased the land farmers can lease to 165 acres (67 hectares), extended their leases to 25 years, allowed them to build homes on the land and will let them pass the leases on to family members. Yet food output was up just 2 percent in 2011 and still below 2005 levels.

That, reduced food imports by the cash-strapped government and reforms allowing farmers to sell more of their production for market prices combined to make food prices shoot up in 2011. The National Statistics Office reported that meat prices rose 8.7 percent while produce prices increased 24.1 percent, for an average of 19.8 percent on the year..

At the same time, the average monthly salary inched up only a few percentage points to the equivalent of $19 a month, the government said. The statistics stated what Cubans already knew — their buying power has shrunk under Castro’s reforms.

President Castro told the National Assembly that Cuba still expected to spend $1.7 billion on food imports in 2012.

He also emphasized at a Communist Party conference the importance of an ongoing crackdown on corruption, which already has shuttered three foreign firms and sent executives of some of Cuba’s biggest state-run firms to prison. He said the party would implement term limits for the country’s leaders, but he gave no details.

What to watch: The pace of reforms and their consequences; The development of small businesses; Agricultural production and food prices.

FINANCIAL HEALTH

Castro said the economy grew 2.7 percent in 2011 and was expected to rise 3.4 percent in 2012. Cuba said it drew a record 2.7 million tourists in 2011, bringing in revenues of about $2.3 billion.

Travel industry experts say tourism has boomed this winter as the Arab Spring scared Europeans away from northern Africa, relaxed U.S. regulations made it easier for Americans to visit the island and Castro’s reforms drew visitors curious to see the effects of changes. They said Cuba needs more hotels to accommodate its growing tourism industry, which is a top hard currency earner for the country.

Cuba is heavily indebted and still recovering from a liquidity crisis that led to a default on payments and freezing of foreign business bank accounts in 2009. Castro told the National Assembly that accounts for foreign suppliers to Cuba had been unfrozen and steps taken to prevent the problem from happening again.

Hopes that reforms would bring more foreign investment have been slow to materialize, but Brazilian company Odebrecht said it would sign a contract to help Cuba improve its troubled sugar industry. One executive said the deal would include ethanol production. Long-awaited golf course developments, aimed at attracting wealthier tourists, remain on hold.

What to watch: Resolution of outstanding short-term debt; Signs of increased interest in foreign investment; Growth of tourism and Cuba’s ability to handle it

OIL PLANS

The Chinese-built Scarabeo 9 arrived in Cuban waters and at January’s end began drilling the first of three exploration wells in Cuba’s part of the Gulf of Mexico. Spain’s Repsol YPF and its partners plan to drill two of the wells and Malaysia’s Petronas and its partner, Russia’s Gazprom Neft, will drill the other, all this year and with the same rig.

The project has drawn opposition in the U.S. Congress, but, to allay safety concerns, Repsol allowed U.S. experts to inspect the Scarabeo 9 in Trinidad and Tobago. They said it met all international engineering and safety standards.U.S. companies are forbidden from operating in Cuba by the U.S. trade embargo.

Cuba depends on imports from its oil-rich ally Venezuela, but says it may have 20 billion barrels of oil offshore. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated 5 billion barrels.

What to watch:  Results of Repsol’s exploratory well;  U.S. pressure to stop the drilling.

FOREIGN RELATIONS

A planned Papal visit in Marchimproved ties with Brazil, whose President Dilma Rousseff paid an official visit in January,are bright spots even as Cuba faces a more hostile Spanish government elected in November.

A major concern for Cuba is the health of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a loyal ally whose government provides 114,000 barrels of oil a day and investment to Cuba. He underwent chemotherapy in Cuba and has declared himself cancer free, but experts say it is too soon to tell. If he were unable to continue in office, it would be a big blow to Cuba.

U.S.-Cuba relations, which thawed briefly under President Barack Obama, have been frozen by the imprisonment of U.S. aid contractor Alan Gross.He is serving a 15-year sentence for providing Internet gear to Cuban Jews under a U.S. program promoting Cuban political change. A document reported to be the court’s sentence said Gross knew the political aims of his work and tried to hide it from Cuban authorities despite his claims to the contrary.

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Oscar Espinosa Chepe, “SECRETISMO ESTADISTICO AL DESCUBIERTO”

La Habana, 16 de enero de 2012

En una sorprendente nota del periódico Granma del 14 de enero, las autoridades cubanas informaron que concluyeron la publicación digital del Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 2010, con los capítulos sobre Cuentas Nacionales y el Sector Externo, así como datos faltantes de Finanzas Internas.  No se aclaró si también los cubanos tendremos derecho a conocer los montos de las zafras azucareras de 2009-2010 y 2010-2011, entre otros datos de suma importancia todavía omitidos en las estadísticas oficiales.

Se señala que en el capítulo Sector Externo se publicarán datos sobre la Balanza de Pagos y la Deuda Externa solamente hasta 2008, por tanto los cubanos seguiremos ignorando el estado de las relaciones económicas y comerciales con el exterior; un factor importante para saber que nos depara el futuro.  Por tanto, habrá que continuar procurando información mediante publicaciones extranjeras sobre lo acontecido en nuestro país. Una situación que está en franca contradicción con las reiteradas condenas de las autoridades a  las prácticas de ocultamiento de la información, el llamado “secretismo”.  Un tema hasta incluido para discutir  en el Proyecto de Documento Base para la Primera Conferencia Nacional del Partido Comunista de Cuba, Punto 66, donde se plantea suprimir “ …las nocivas manifestaciones del secretismo”.

Además del ocultamiento sistemático, las estadísticas cubanas adolecen de distorsiones y contradicciones que le restan credibilidad.  En ese sentido, el gobierno incluso ha adoptado métodos de cálculo del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) alejados de los internacionalmente utilizados, o sea  el Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de la ONU.  Así se dan cifras de crecimiento económico carentes de sustentación,  una sobrevaloración de los sectores de servicios en particular en lo referente a educación y salud pública, y son manipulados regularmente algunos indicadores, como los relativos a la  inflación y el desempleo para tratar de mostrar equilibrios inexistentes.

Después de sostener durante años la existencia de increíbles tasas de desempleo inferiores a 2,0%,  el gobierno se ha visto forzado a  reconocer que sobran más de 1,3 millón de trabajadores en el sector estatal, y que de 358 000 cuentapropistas existentes hoy, el  66,0% no tenía vínculos laborales anteriores. En Cuba se da la paradoja de que en el período 1996-2010 la economía ha crecido con una tasa promedio anual del 4,60%, mientras el consumo de energía eléctrica total lo ha hecho al 2,0%.  Si es tomada para el cálculo solo la energía eléctrica consumida en los sectores productivos y de servicios, la tasa de crecimiento promedio anual resulta de 0,6%, o sea 7,7 veces inferior al citado aumento promedio del PIB.   En el colmo del absurdo, en algunos años como 2005 se publicó un crecimiento del PIB nada menos que de 11,2%, “a nivel chino”,  y la disminución del consumo de energía eléctrica  en 1,9%, algo insostenible.  Como se conoce existe una correlación entre el crecimiento de la economía y el consumo de electricidad, que se modifica en función de una mayor o menor eficiencia,  pero nunca a los absurdos niveles de disparidad que muestran las estadísticas oficiales cubanas.

El gobierno en ocasiones ha señalado que el ocultamiento de los datos económicos responde al interés de no brindar elementos al  enemigo externo.  En realidad daña al país y resta credibilidad, el ocultamiento de la información u ofrecer datos no fiables. Difícilmente alguien se arriesga a otorgar créditos, si no conoce la situación financiera real del posible prestatario.  Mucho menos un país podrá atraer inversiones en esas condiciones.  Una nación con poca credibilidad si  logra financiamiento es en condiciones duras, con tasas de interés elevadas y condiciones de pago sumamente estrictas; y  cuando recibe inversiones, debe conceder enormes garantías.

Asimismo, el ocultamiento y la falsificación de la información no tiene sentido en un mundo tan interconectado, pues todo o casi todo se conoce más tarde o más temprano. Cuba ha ocultado durante años el monto de su Deuda Externa y sus Reservas Internacionales de Divisas, pero sólo se requiriere consultar algunas publicaciones serias, como The Economist Inteligence Unit (EIU), para conocer estimados bastantes cercanos a la realidad, realizados con datos no obtenidos mediante espionaje,  sino captados de las estadísticas u otras informaciones de los socios comerciales de Cuba.  El EIU ha situado la Deuda Externa de Cuba en 2011 -sin incluir la contraída con la URSS y otros países del este de Europa- en 21,0 miles de millones de USD, y ha señalado los intereses que deberían haberse pagado, con una proyección para esos datos  hasta 2013.

En conclusión puede decirse que continuar el ocultamiento es inútil.  Sólo conduce al descrédito.   En el actual mundo interconectado, la transparencia es mucho más ventajosa, a la par que resulta contraproducente mantener el afán de engañar al pueblo, ya escéptico ante tantas promesas incumplidas.

Oscar Espinosa Chepe

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Updating re Economics Essays from TEMAS

Below are a series of hyperlinks to articles on economic reform in Cuba. Unfortunately the essays are available only in Spanish.

Economía y política

Richard Levins y Aurora Levins Morales, Respondiendo a Ricardo Torres

Omar Álvarez Dueñas, A propósito de la controversia sobre la «inviabilidad del socialismo»

Carmelo Mesa-Lago, Sobre la «inviabilidad del socialismo», pero ¿qué tipo de socialismo? (Observaciones a los comentarios de José Luis Rodríguez en Temas)

José Luis Rodríguez, A propósito del socialismo, ¿de qué inviabilidad se habla?

Luis Marcelo Vera ¿Cuál es el problema estratégico principal de la economía cubana?

LArmando Nova González, La propiedad en la economía cubana

Ricardo Torres Pérez, La actualización del modelo económico cubano: continuidad y ruptura

Julio Díaz Vázquez, Es aplicable el modelo chino o vietnamita en Cuba?

Rafael Betancourt, Observaciones en torno al Proyecto de Lineamientos

Fernando Barral, Aproximación sociológica al problema de la corrupción en Cuba

Armando Nova González, El papel estratégico de la agricultura: problemas y medidas

Omar Everleny Perez, Cuba: ¿por dónde va la economía?

Pavel Vidal Alejandro, La estabilidad monetaria en Cuba: una síntesis

Ramón de la Cruz Ochoa, Acotaciones al texto del Dr. Fernando Barral sobre la corrupción en Cuba

 

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Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana (CEEC)

By Arch Ritter

Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana (CEEC)

The University of Havana’s Centro de Estudios de la Economia Cubana has made itself the foremost research institution on the Cuban economy since its establishment in 1989.  Its faculty includes many of the best-known analysts on the Cuban economy, including both senior and newer faculty members. The work of the Cuban Economy Team is especially impressive and is certainly worth careful study by anyone interested in Cuba. I have often thought that Cuba would benefit immensely if some of the members of CEEC were in key Cabinet positions in the Government of Cuba responsible for the management of the economy.  I expect that this in fact will happen before too long!

Cuban Economy Team: Dr. Juan Triana Cordoví, Dr. Omar Everleny Pérez (Director), Dr. Armando Nova González, Dr. Hiram Marquetti Nodarse, Dr. Jorge Mario Sánchez Egozcue, Dr. Pavel Vidal Alejandro, Ms. Betsy Anaya, Ms. CamilaPiñeiro Harnecker, Ms. Ricardo Torres Pérez and Lic. Saira Pons Pérez

Enterprise Management Team: Dr. Orlando W. Gutierréz Castillo, Dr. Humberto Blanco Rosales, Dr. Rosendo Morales González, Dr. Jorge Ricardo Ramírez, Dra. Aleida Gonzalez-Cueto, Dra. Dayma Echevarría León, Dra. Ileana Díaz Fernández, Ms. Mercedes González Sánchez, Ms. Maria Isabel Suárez González,  Lic. Dayrelis Ojeda Suris and Lic. Mariuska Cancio  Fonseca

The CEEC publishes a number of “Boletínes” each year that usually include valuable analyses of various aspects of Cuba’s economy and economic policy. Here are the Tables of Contents of the last three issues. The “Boletínes” are hyper-linked to the CEEC Web Site and some of the essays are linked to the PDF files for rapid access.

Boletín Agosto 2011

El sistema de gestion y direccion de la economia hoy. Ileana Diaz,  Dra.Ileana Diaz

Experiencias noruegas relevantes para la agricultura cubana, Dr. Anicia Garcia

La propiedad en la economia cubana. Armando Nova,  Dr.Armando Nova

Los sistemas de direccion  de la economia  1961- 1975,  Dra.Ileana Diaz

Turismo de salud en Cuba. David Pajon Dr. David Pajon

Boletín Abril-Agosto 2010

Competitividad e innovacion, donde esta Cuba. Ileana Diaz, Dr. Ileana Díaz

El impacto del postgrado en la educacion superior Cuba- Venezuela. Rosendo Morales Dr. Rosendo Morales

El mercado y el estado, dos partes que forman un todo. Armando Nova, Dr. Armando Nova González

Entre el ajuste fiscal y los cambios estructurales, se extiende el cuentapropismo, Dr. Pavel Vidal y Dr. Omar Everleny Pérez

Fuerzas favorables y restrictivas a la dirección estratégica de la empresa. Dayrelis Ojeda y Humberto Blanco Lic. Dayrelis Ojeda y Dr. Humber

Boletin Enero-Mayo 2010

El mercado libre agropecuario en 2009. Armando Nova, Dr. Armando Nova González

El sector energetico cubano entre 2005 y 2009. Ricardo Torres_0 Ms. Ricardo Torres Pérez

La política fiscal actual. Pavel Vidal_0 Dr. Pavel Vidal Alejandro

Estrategia. Mito o realidad. Ileana Diaz y Roberto Cartaya_0 Dr. Ileana Díaz y Dr. Roberto Cartaya

La producción agricola y ganadera en 2009. Armando Nova_0 Dr. Armando Nova González

La universidad, la economía y el desarrollo. Juan Triana_0 Dr. Juan Triana Cordoví

Los cambios estructurales e institucionales. Pavel Vidal_0,  Dr. Pavel Vidal Alejandro

Universidad de la Habana, “Alma Mater”

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Michelle Chase: Cuba Rethinks the Revolution

An interesting and perceptive overview analysis of Cuba’s reform process was published recently in The Nation by Michelle Chase,who teaches Latin American history at Bloomfield College is writing a book on the role of women and gender during the Cuban Revolution.

The full essay is available here: Michelle Chase, Cuba Rethinks the Revolution.

The original may be found at: http://www.agenceglobal.com/Article.asp?Id=2666

Here is an excerpt:

The Cuban economy has been struggling for years. Actually, with some ups and downs, for decades. So why is the transformation happening now? There are external reasons, such as the global economic crisis and the costly hurricane damage of 2008. But mostly the reforms are the result of Raúl Castro’s gradual consolidation of power. The political shift may seem subtle, but it is important. Raúl’s style of governance is more procedural and institutional, less charismatic and spontaneous than Fidel’s. He’s less of a crusader, more of a planner and negotiator. And it’s clear that he wants to implement the reforms with the widest possible consensus.

That search for consensus may be one reason behind the slow pace of the rollout. Within government circles alone, there are different camps. Some fully embrace the reforms, seeing China and Vietnam as positive models. The economist Everleny, for one, was struck by the vibrancy of the Vietnamese economy when he visited, and was hopeful that Cuba could learn from the successful reforms implemented there. It’s a view that is probably shared by many powerful stakeholders in the government and the armed forces. Others want Cuba’s reforms to be tailored in a way that would give priority to small, worker-owned cooperatives, resulting in a new, sui generis model of decentralized socialism. One young economist I spoke to was inspired by cooperatives and worker-generated enterprise in other Latin American countries, where the “pink tide” has rejuvenated the left. “This is an opportunity to improve our system,” she said of the reforms. “But there’s a risk that the prevailing paradigm here will be privatization and the market socialism of Vietnam and China.”

Beyond government circles, some see the political moment as an opportunity to make Cuban socialism more democratic, representative and plural — proof that the old dream of a more democratic socialism has not been extinguished. Within Cuba’s small but growing circle of independent organizations, some warn that with major economic transformations on the horizon, open debates about Cuba’s future are more urgent than ever. For example, members of Observatorio Crítico, a network of small working groups dedicated to issues like racial justice, labor and the environment, have warned of the costs of Cuba’s economic transformation for the country’s most vulnerable. Others have called for a re-elaboration of the fraying social pact. As Veiga has argued in Espacio Laical, Cuban society needs to collectively redefine concepts like sovereignty, democracy, social justice and human solidarity: in essence, to rethink the revolution from the ground up.

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Cuba Standard.com, Cuba Trade and Investment News

By Arch Ritter

A fine newsletter on Cuban trade and investment issues, including broader economic, political and company news is produced by Johannes Werner, who is also the editor of the Website entitled the CubaStandard.com. While out of the price range of the  analyst or citizen interested in Cuba, it is of relevance for enterprises and some government offices. Some of the items in the Newsletter also appear on the Website as well.

The Table of Contents of the most recent issue is presented below in order to provide an idea of the type of analysis and coverage included  in the Newsletter. The particulars on the publication are also presented below.

The Website for the the Cuba Standard is located here: Cuba Standard.com, Cuba Trade and Investment News

Table of Contents:

U.S. inching closer to talks on offshore oil safety.

Government eases auto sales restrictions.

Analysis: The Cuban diaspora, A role for exile money and know-how?

OFAC fines Texas oil supplier.

U.S. lawmakers warning Repsol.

Jorge Piñón: What Washington should be doing.

PdVSA official: China ‘almost sure’ to fund Cuban refineries.

Government reform shifting into overdrive.

Cuba to access global pharmaceutical markets via Brazil.

Cuba seeking South African funding for medical projects.

Iran boosts line of credit.

Vietnam seeking debt arrangement.

Vietnam working with Cuba on biogas

BY THE NUMBERS, FIRST HALF 2011

C o m p a n i e s:

Pemex eyeing Repsol’s Cuba operations;

Sherritt appoints new director ;

China, Cuba to jointly develop vaccine

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Yoani Sanchez on Cuba’s Current Predicament: “ Country for Old Men”

BY YOANI SÁNCHEZ

This essay was originally published in Foreign Policy, October 12, 2011. It can be found here:  “ Country for Old Men” or here: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/country_for_old_men

At the end of his July 31, 2006, broadcast, the visibly nervous anchor on Cuban Television News announced that there would be a proclamation from Fidel Castro. This was hardly uncommon, and many Cubans no doubt turned off their TVs in anticipation of yet another diatribe from thecomandante en jefe accusing the United States of committing some fresh evil against the island. But those of us who stayed tuned that evening saw, instead, a red-faced Carlos Valenciaga, Fidel’s personal secretary, appear before the cameras and read, voice trembling, from a document as remarkable as it was brief. In a few short sentences, the invincible guerrilla of old confessed that he was very ill and doled out government responsibilities to his nearest associates. Most notably, his brother Raúl was charged with assuming Fidel’s duties as first secretary of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, commander in chief of the Revolutionary Armed Forces, and president of the Council of State. The dynastic succession had begun.

It was a miracle that the old telephone exchanges, with their 1930s-vintage equipment, didn’t collapse that night as callers rushed to share the news, in a code that was secret to no one: “He kicked the bucket.” “El Caballo” — the Horse — “is gone.” “The One is terminal.” I picked up the receiver and called my mother, who was born in 1957, on the eve of Castro’s revolution; neither of us had known any other president. “He’s not here anymore, Mom,” I said, almost whispering. “He’s not here anymore.” On the other end of the line she began to cry.

It was the little things that changed at first. Rum sales increased. The streets of central Havana were oddly empty. In the absence of the prolific orator who was fond of cutting into TV shows to address his public, homemakers were surprised to see their Brazilian soap operas air at their scheduled times. Public events began to dwindle, among them the so-called “anti-imperialism” rallies held regularly throughout the country to rail against the northern enemy. But the fundamental change happened within people, within the three generations of Cubans who had known only a single prime minister, a single first secretary of the Communist Party, a single commander in chief. With the sudden prospect of abandonment by the papá estado — “daddy state” — that Fidel had built, Cubans faced a kind of orphanhood, though one that brought more hope than pain.

Five years later, we have entered a new phase in our relationship with our government, one that is less personal but still deeply worshipful of a man some people now call the “patient in chief.” Fidel lives on, and Raúl — whose power, as everyone knows, comes from his genes rather than his political gifts — has ruled since his ultimate accession in February 2008 without even the formality of the ballot box, prompting a dark joke often told in the streets of Havana: This is not a bloody dictatorship, but a dictatorship by blood. Pepito, the mischievous boy who stars in our popular jokes, calls Raúl “Castro Version 1.5″ because he is no longer No. 2, but still isn’t allowed to be the One. When the comandante — now barely a shadow of his former self — appeared at the final session of the Communist Party’s sixth congress this April, he grabbed his brother’s arm and raised it, to a standing ovation. The gesture was intended to consecrate the transfer of power, but to many of us the two old men seemed to be joining hands in search of mutual support, not in celebration of victory.

Raúl’s much-discussed reforms followed the supposed handover of power, but in reality, they have been less steps forward than attempts to redress the legal absurdities of the past. One of these was the lifting of the tourist apartheid that prevented Cubans from enjoying their own country’s hotel facilities. For years, to connect to the Internet, I had to disguise myself as a foreigner and mumble a few brief sentences in English or German to buy a web-access card in the lobby of some hotel. The sale of computers was finally authorized in March 2008, though by that time many younger Cubans had assembled their own computers with pieces bought on the black market. The prohibition on Cubans having cell-phone contracts was also repealed, ending the sad spectacle of people begging foreigners to help them establish accounts for prepaid phones. Restrictions on agriculture were loosened, allowing farmers to lease government land on 10-year terms. The liberalization brought to light the sad fact that the state had allowed much of the country’s land (70 percent of it was in state hands) to become overgrown with invasive weeds.

While officially still socialist, the government has also pushed for an expansion of so-called self-employment, masked with the euphemism of “nonstate forms of production.” It is, in reality, a private sector emerging in fits and starts. In less than a year, the number of self-employed grew from 148,000 to 330,000, and there is now a flowering of textile production, food kiosks, and the sale of CDs and DVDs. But heavy taxes, the lack of a wholesale market, and the inability to import raw materials independent of the state act as a brake on the inventiveness of these entrepreneurs, as does memory: The late 1990s, when the return to centralization and nationalization swept away the private endeavors that had surged in the Cuban economy after the fall of the Berlin Wall, were not so long ago.

So for now, the effects of the highly publicized reforms are barely noticeable on our plates or in our pockets. The country continues to import 80 percent of what we consume, at a cost of more than $1.5 billion. In the hard-currency stores, the cans of corn say “Made in the USA”; the sugar provided through the ration book travels from Brazil; and in the Varadero tourist hotels, a good part of the fruit comes from the Dominican Republic, while the flowers and coffee travel from Colombia. In 2010, 38,165 Cubans left the island for good. My impatient friends declare they are not going to stay “to turn off the light in El Morro” — the lighthouse at the entrance to Havana Bay — “after everyone else leaves.”

The new president understands all too well that transformations that are too deep could cause him to lose control. Cubans jokingly compare their political system to one of the dilapidated houses in Old Havana: The hurricanes don’t bring it down and the rains don’t bring it down, but one day someone tries to change the lock on the front door and the whole edifice collapses. And so the government’s most practiced ploy is the purchase of time with proclamations of supposed reforms that, once implemented, fail to achieve the promised effects.

But this can only continue for so long. Before the end of December, Raúl Castro will have to fulfill his promise to legalize home sales, which have been illegal since 1959, a move that will inevitably result in the redistribution of people in cities according to their purchasing power. One of the most enduring bastions of revolutionary imagery — working-class Cubans living in the palatial homes of the bygone elite — could collapse with the establishment of such marked economic differences between neighborhoods.

And yet the old Cuba persists in subtle, sinister forms. Raúl works more quietly than Fidel, and from the shadows. He has increased the number of political police and equipped them with advanced technology to monitor the lives of his critics, myself among them. I learned long ago that the best way to fool the “security” is to make public everything I think, to hide nothing, and in so doing perhaps I can reduce the national resources spent on undercover agents, the pricey gas for the cars in which they move, and the long shifts searching the Internet for our divergent opinions. Still, we hear of brief detentions that include heavy doses of physical and verbal violence while leaving no legal trail. Cuba’s major cities are now filled with surveillance cameras that capture both those who smuggle cigars and those of us who carry only our rebellious thoughts.

But over the last five years the government has undeniably and irreversibly lost control of the dissemination of information. Hidden in water tanks and behind sheets hanging on clotheslines, illegal satellite dishes bring people the news that is banned or censored in the national media. The emergence of bloggers who are critical of the system, the maturation of independent journalism, and the rise of autonomous spaces for the arts have all eroded the state’s monopoly on power.

Fidel, meanwhile, has faded away. He appears rarely and only in photos, always dressed in the tracksuit of an aging mafioso, and we begin to forget the fatigues-clad fighting man who intruded on nearly every minute of our existence for half a century. Just a year ago, my 8-year-old niece was watching television and, seeing the desiccated face of the old commander in chief, shouted to her father, “Daddy, who is this gentleman?”

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New Publication from Cuba: Cooperativas y Socialismo: Una Mirada DesdeCuba

A collection of essays on Cooperatives has just been published in Cuba, compiled by Camila Piñeiro Harnecker of the Centro de Estudios sobre la Economia Cubana. Ms. Camila Piñeiro comes with an impeccable political pedigree, with parents Manuel Piñeiro Losada (a Revolutionary from 1952 onwards and a 32 year veteran of the Central Committee) and Marta Harnecker, (a Chilean sociologist,  leading ideologue and prolific author.) The volume was made available courtesy of ASCE and Joaquin Pujol

The complete document is available hyperlinked here: Cooperativas y Socialismo: Una Mirada DesdeCuba, La Habana: Editorial Caminos, 2011

Compiladora: Camila Piñeiro Harnecker; Coordinador editorial: José Ramón Vidal

Edición: Mayra Valdés Lara; Diseño: Olmer Buchholz Espinosa

The Table of Contents is reproduced below.

Índice

Prólogo Camila Piñeiro Harnecke, 7

Parte 1 ¿Qué es una cooperativa?

1.       Una introducción a las cooperativas, Jesús Cruz Reyes y Camila Piñeiro Harnecker, 31

2.       La construcción de alternativas más allá del capital,  Julio C. Gambina y Gabriela Roffinelli, 55

Parte 2 Las cooperativas y los pensadores socialistas

3.       Cooperativismo y autogestión en las visions de Marx, Engels y Lenin,  Humberto Miranda Lorenzo 71

4.       Cooperativismo socialista y emancipación humana. El legado de Lenin, Iñaki Gil de San Vicente, 103

5.       El Ché Guevara: las cooperativas y la economía política de la transición al socialism, Helen Yaffe 132

6.       Las bases del socialismo autogestionario: la contribución de István Mészáros, Henrique T. Nova, 167

Parte 3 Las cooperativas en otros países

7.       Mondragón: los dilemas de un cooperativismo maduro, Larraitz Altuna Gabilondo, Aitzol Loyola Idiakez y Eneritz Pagalday Tricio, 191

8.       Cuarenta años de autogestión en vivienda popular en Uruguay, El “Modelo FUCVAM”,  Benjamin Nahoum, 219

9.       Economía solidaria en Brasil: la actualidad de las cooperativas para la emancipación histórica de los trabajadores/ Luiz Inácio Gaiger y Eliene Dos Anjos, 245

10.   Autogestión obrera en Argentina: problemas y potencialidades del trabajo autogestionado en el contexto de la poscrisis neoliberal, Andrés Rugge, 272

11.   De las cooperativas a las empresas de propiedad social directa en el proceso venezolano Dario Azzellini, 301

Parte 4 Las cooperativas y la construcción socialista en Cuba

12.   Las cooperativas agropecuarias en Cuba: 1959-presente,  Armando Nova González, 321

13.   La UBPC: forma de rediseñar la propiedad estatal con gestión cooperative, Emilio Rodríguez Membrado y Alcides López Labrada, 337

14.   Notas características del marco legal del ambiente cooperativo cubano,  Avelino Fernández Peiso, 366

15.   Retos del cooperativismo como alternativa de desarrollo ante la crisis global. Su papel en el modelo económico cubano, Claudio Alberto Rivera Rodríguez, Odalys Labrador Machíny Juan Luis Alfonso Alemán, 397

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POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CHANGE IN CUBA

A three-day international symposium held under the auspices of the Bildner Center at City University of New York. and spearheaded by its Director Mauricio Font, was held in March 2011. It was entitled Cuba Futures: Past and Present, and focused on the dynamics of change in contemporary Cuba—the politics, culture, economy.

A selection of the papers on the Cuban economy have been published on the web by the Bildner Centre.  The are all hyperlinked here: Political Economy of Change in Cuba, Bildner Center, CUNY New York. A Table of Contents is presented below. Of special interest are the essays by the analysts from the Centro de Estudios sobre la Economia Cubana, Armando Nova, Camila Piñeiro, Pavel Vidal Alejandro and Omar Everleny Pérez .

Table of Contents

Preface                                                                                                                                   xi

1 La actualización del modelo económico cubano, Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva

2 Forecasting Cuba’s Economy: 2, 5, and 20 Years, Emily Morris*    10

3 Las restricciones de divisas en la economía cubana, 2010, Pavel Vidal Alejandro 19

4 New Forms of Enterprise in Cuba’s Changing Economy, Camila Piñeiro Harnecker    43

5 Valoración del impacto de las medidas más recientes en los resultados de la agricultura en Cuba, Armando Nova González     63

6 Las nuevas transformaciones en la agricultura cubana: éxitos y desafíos, Reynaldo Jiménez Guethón           81

7 Cuba y el turismo norteamericano. Analisis de potencialidades y de impactos en la región caribeña, Gerardo González Núñez and Roberto Orro Fernández         9

78 Tourism in Cuba: Barriers to Economic Growth and Development Hilary Becker     117

9 Cuba: A Services-Centered Survival and Development Pattern, Alberto Gabriele        133

10 Theoretical Foundations of a Future Privatization in Cuba: The Property and Ownership Paradigm, Frank-Christian Hansel   155

11 Globalization and the Socialist Multinational: Cuba and ALBA’s Grannacional Projects at the Intersection of Business and Human Rights, Larry Catá Backer         183

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